Ecstatic Disregard

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Topic

covid19

A collection of 5 issues

Herd Immunity

Herd immunity occurs when enough of the population, by one means or another, are immune to a disease, such that chains of infection are unlikely to occur. Acquiring that immunity can be via a vaccine, or through immunity acquired by an earlier infection. We can define herd immunity in terms

Mapping COVID-19 In The UK With Leaflet And R

COVID-19 data for the UK has been provided in an up to date and tidy form by Tom White and others. I’ve used this source to see how easy it is to plot this data on a map. Plotting This data set makes it very easy to plot case,

Predicting The Peak Automatically

In a previous post, I attempted a very rough estimate of when the peak for COVID-19 in the UK would be over. I reckoned it would be around April 22nd. I calculated this by doing a linear regression on the effective reproduction number as calculated using UK case data and

Predicting The Peak

A month or two ago I started modelling the reproduction number of COVID-19 using the R0 package. I then used this model to create a Shiny app to break down the data by country. Can we use this information to predict the peak in the UK? For a full detailed

R0

I have been attempting to understand the nature of the “reproduction number” in epidemiology and to this end I’ve enlisted the help of the R0 package for R. For a good overview of what the reproduction number is and why it is so important please check out this article.